11 November 2016

Wow. Just Wow.

So - It's been almost four years since I (apparently) had anything to say here. But the events of the last 24 hours have been historic, and warrant critical observation.

For background, I am a white male, formerly from Kentucky (now living in Virginia), 55 years old. I am a veteran, married to a a disabled spouse, renting rather than owning at the moment, with extensive student loan debt, and not a lot of disposable assets, trying to purchase a home, and by all indications, will have to work until I am 72 in order to afford to retire (especially sitting on a 30-year mortgage). Based upon the turnout for the victor of the electoral college vote, you'd think I'd be a happy camper. 


However, the other side of the coin presents that I am also a defense contractor with a Master's degree in Cyber-related disciplines, two cars and a motorcycle, a truck and another motorcycle (I inherited on the passing of my last sibling), and a trailer for my sometime hobby. From this perspective, life doesn't appear to suck too much. But last night's election results will likely change that last bit for me, considerably. Both personally, and professionally.

President-Elect Trump, soon to be the Entertainer-in-Chief, has sold the White American Underclass a bill of goods. And they swallowed it, hook, line and sinker. Make America Great Again. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. And be afraid of those who are different (immigrants, especially Muslims). All illegal aliens are criminals (while an accurate statement from an immigration point-of-view, Trump's POV is that they're all drug-addled or drug-dealing felons who will steal your jobs, rape your sons and seduce your daughters). This all made for a very acrimonious campaign cycle.

The fact is, industrial jobs that went overseas aren't coming back. He/We can't change the tax laws enough to offset the value of cheap labor in foreign markets. Even if we could cajole American firms to bring back their offshore capital, it will just be to marginally support the consumer economy we have become. He/We can't reinvent the American manufacturing sector because manufacturing requires raw materials that we've pretty much spent. If you look at a map of the world of raw materials, the majority of cheap Iron is coming from Chinese-run, coal-fired forges (the U.S. is 8th in production of Iron/Steel). China produces 32 times the Iron we produce in the U.S. And 91% of the rare earth minerals used to enable the technological wonders of Silicon Valley are mined in China. Importing those materials to the U.S. to reinvigorate a 2nd generation industrial complex and the manufacturing sectors would require end product pricing that simply will not enable us to be competitive in world markets. And even if we're not exporting, then we'd saturate the U.S. market with our own non-tariffed products in pretty short order, if we could even afford to buy them with our rapidly diminishing wages. Our products are coal and oil, two things we can readily sell abroad (or use to continue diminishing our dependence on foreign influence; but if we are buying our own rhetoric about global warming, probably shouldn't.

So - Cars, Appliances, Steel for construction of buildings and infrastructure: Largely gone for good. Coal, bad idea. Being from Kentucky, I get it. But it is a losing proposition. You can't make mining it safe, and the use of it sets the planet on a path to self-annihilation. Oil? It's like sitting at the casino table too long. It's a long-term gamble that won't pay off in the end, because all it does is buy time to a conclusion that won't come out in our favor. The rest of the world will sit quietly until we run out, then we're stuck. And again, it also keeps us (all) on that global path to environmental doom. These are not answers. They're desperate, cloying attempts to recapture the global dominance which, in our shortsightedness, slipped our grasp.

As for the social issues that Trump has brought to the fore, while I agree that the path to citizenship should not be amnesty for those who have already broken our existing immigration laws, I do not believe that everyone who comes to our shores is here simply to take from others, lower our standards of living, or threaten our way of life (whatever that has become these days). Given the size of the Muslim cohort, I do believe that there is some 'Six-degrees of separation' between many Muslims and those Muslims who mean to do us harm. However, I do not believe that every Muslim who has immigrated to America (or converted; don't forget, there are many who have) is an inherent threat to our country, or personally knows someone who is. Yes, we should be more diligent, do a better job at screening on both ends of the pipeline into our country. Yes, we should be deporting illegal aliens based upon violent or drug-related criminal records (here or in their home country). But building a wall will be a ridiculous expense we can ill afford when we cannot yet care for our own.

And while we do possess great military might, we are not Rome, nor is Trump an Alexander the Great. Our allies as well as many of those unfriendly to the U.S. have all amassed armaments sufficient to keep anyone with a shred of wisdom at bay. The days of Empire building are over. And if we retreat or pivot back to an isolationist policy, I doubt we will ever find ourselves enjoying the role of sole superpower of this world ever again, unless we foolishly choose (or provoke) a return to the dark ages and start over.

Personally, last night's political victory for the unwashed white minority feels more like a splenetic hemorrhage by those simply unable to engage the world as it has become, for better or worse.
Trump has knowingly set the under-educated, under-employed segment of white America on itself (and everyone else), turning us into the proverbial 'Crab Bucket'.

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