13 July 2006

Terror as statecraft | Chicago Tribune

Also:
The Nation of Hezbollah - Los Angeles Times

The (Lebanese) elected government was still in meetings Wednesday, arguing over what to say in public, when Hezbollah chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah went before television cameras with a pointed threat for the ruling elite.

"Today is a time for solidarity and cooperation, and we can have discussions later. I warn you against committing any error. This is a national responsibility," the cleric said, looking every inch the head of state.

Any criticism over the capture of the two Israeli soldiers would be tantamount to colluding with Israel, Nasrallah said, making it clear that he expected citizens and officials to heed his orders.

"To the Lebanese people, both officials and non-officials, nobody should behave in a way that encourages the enemy to attack Lebanon, and nobody should say anything that gives cover to attack Lebanon," he said.

Overextended U.S. Weighs Its Options in the Mideast - Los Angeles Times
For more than a year, U.S. officials have pointed to what they see as signs that Lebanon could be moving away from Syrian control toward greater autonomy and stability. But the new fighting underscores the weakness of the Lebanese government, and it could lead to a strengthening of Syria's influence.

If Israel strikes Syrian locations in an effort to target Hezbollah militants, Damascus could retaliate by allowing a greater flow of militants across its border into Iraq. U.S. officials have recently praised Syria for exerting firmer control over its eastern desert region, but the long border could again become a major headache for U.S. forces in western Iraq.

And Hezbollah's longtime supporter, Iran, which is facing growing international pressure over its nuclear ambitions, may see the new confrontation as a way to remind Washington of Tehran's power to strike back at U.S. interests and allies.

In two previous posts, I have openly espoused a position that the U.S. should diminish or discontinue its support of Israel's military efforts (via continued sales of military weaponry and munitions), so long as they play the disproportionate aggressor. And despite today's reports that 70 or so rockets were launched into Israel from Gaza (after my having glibly remarked that they couldn't do more than launch a few rockets and bomb a bus or two), I still stand by that position. Frankly, I think if we cut everyone off, they'll go back to throwing rocks, which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

However, the author of the first editorial above (Tribune) makes several valid observations. Israel has indeed been provoked, no doubt about it. That terrorist activity continues to be supported by Hamas, an organization that has also undertaken the additional use of the electoral process to engage the Israelis. And I agree that Hamas can't have it both ways (terror and diplomacy, or terror as diplomacy). That's not an olive branch, but more like trying to club Israel with the whole damn tree. While they're not looking (ok, ok, Israel is never not looking).

I also acknowledge and support that Israel is well within their sovereign right to respond to recent incursions and kidnappings, whether by Hamas, or the Hezbollah, or any other agent. Still, their responses still seem wildly disproportionate (in the short term), and threaten to undermine the entire region. Yesterday's incursions into Lebanon and bombing of Gaza have the enormous potential to rally and unify the Arab states in opposition in a way not seen since World War I. Especially with a prickly Iran pulling the strings in Syria.

With the U.S. being spread thin at other corners of the world, one wonders how the U.S. will respond. According to these and other authors, neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians want interlopers in this conflict, preferring to look to the EU for empathy and support. McFly could continue with the 'blind eye' approach he's taken all along, but something tells me that our own interests in the region will eventually prod us to stick our nose in where it isn't wanted. Again.

Amended: 7/13/06 13:15CDT

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